Chicago corn reaches 20-month high as US and EU crop concerns deepen

Five-session rally lifts September corn

Corn completed a fifth consecutive rising session in Chicago and reached its highest price in 20 months, Clarín reported. The September contract gained $3.55 to $197 per tonne. The advance reflected mounting concern about crop conditions in the United States and the European Union, alongside restrictions on Ukrainian grain shipments through the Black Sea.

The latest US crop assessment provided the immediate trigger. According to the market consultancy Granar, the US Department of Agriculture reduced the share of corn rated good or excellent from 60% to 57% in its weekly report. That was below the 59% expected by traders and well behind the 71% recorded at the same point a year earlier.

Production estimates diverge

Conditions differed across the two leading producing states cited in the report. Iowa retained a 78% good-to-excellent rating, unchanged from the previous week but below 84% a year earlier. Illinois slipped to 58% from 59%, compared with 61% at the same stage last year. The USDA said 86% of plants had reached the milk stage, 45% were dented and 6% of the crop was mature. Maturity was 4% a week earlier, while both last year's level and the average were 6%.

A more persistent source of support came from ProFarmer's estimate for the 2026/27 US harvest. Its projection of 389.75 million tonnes was 4.18% below the official estimate of 406.75 million tonnes. The gap between those assessments raises the possibility of a smaller exportable surplus if field results confirm the lower figure, although the official projection remains substantially higher.

Outside the United States, adverse environmental conditions have damaged the outlook for EU feed-corn production. At the same time, Ukraine continues to face severe restrictions on grain exports through the Black Sea. A reduced European harvest and constrained Ukrainian supply could increase EU demand for imported corn, creating additional opportunities for exporters in the United States, Brazil and Argentina.

Argentine forward sales revive as soybeans rise

The firmer international market has coincided with renewed Argentine forward business for the 2026/27 corn crop. The Rosario Board of Trade said sales accelerated after July 15 and peaked in the week of August 5. By August 12, cumulative sales of new-crop corn had reached 2.14 million tonnes. Of that volume, 1.47 million tonnes already had a firm price through fixed-price transactions or previously open-price purchases that had since been priced, equivalent to about 70% of the total.

Soybeans also advanced in Chicago. The September contract gained $4 to $451 per tonne, supported by another deterioration in US crop ratings and expectations of renewed Chinese purchases of US soybeans. The USDA lowered the share rated good or excellent from 61% to 60%, compared with 69% a year earlier and the 61% expected by traders. Illinois was unchanged at 59%, while Iowa declined to 77% from 78%. The report said 91% of the crop had formed pods and 6% was dropping leaves, against 4% both last year and on average. Expectations for Chinese buying have risen ahead of a planned meeting between Xi Jinping and Donald Trump, but no new purchases were reported in the source material.