Cheap pork and high chicken supply deepen price pressure in Brazil

Chicken availability reaches 2.25 million tonnes

Brazil’s domestic chicken market is facing mounting price pressure as abundant poultry supply meets competition from historically cheap pork. Chicken availability reached 2.25 million tonnes in the second quarter of 2026, the highest volume recorded since the final three months of 2025, according to data reported by VG Notícias.

The figures, released by the Center for Advanced Studies in Applied Economics (Cepea) on August 28, cover the period from April through June. The high level of availability has already pushed chicken prices onto a downward path, creating a more difficult commercial environment for producers and processors serving the Brazilian market.

The supply figure is particularly significant because poultry sellers are not competing only against other chicken suppliers. Pork is trading at historically low levels, Cepea researchers said, narrowing the price difference between the two proteins. That reduces chicken’s relative competitiveness and makes it harder to move poultry products through domestic sales channels.

Pork competition compounds poultry oversupply

Price competition between pork and chicken matters because both proteins target cost-conscious consumers and buyers. When pork becomes unusually inexpensive, retailers, food-service operators and households have a stronger incentive to substitute it for chicken. With poultry availability already elevated, this substitution limits sellers’ ability to protect chicken prices or pass costs through to customers.

The present imbalance also follows disruption to Brazil’s poultry export trade in 2025. Restrictions were imposed after avian influenza was confirmed at a commercial farm in the country. As exporters encountered difficulties shipping chicken abroad, part of the production originally intended for foreign buyers remained in Brazil, increasing domestic availability.

VG Notícias did not specify how much export-oriented production was redirected to the local market or provide current margin estimates. Nevertheless, the combination of retained supply, continued high production and cheaper competing protein indicates pressure across the poultry chain. Producers face weaker prices for their output, while processors and distributors must manage larger volumes in a market where buyers have more bargaining power.

Year-end product mix creates another challenge

Chicken production is projected to remain elevated over the coming months. The market may become still more difficult toward the end of the year, when traditional chicken cuts usually lose space to seasonal holiday birds and pork. This shift in consumption could weaken demand for standard poultry products just as the sector continues to handle substantial supply.

The resulting pressure will not necessarily be distributed evenly. Companies with access to export markets, diversified product portfolios or seasonal poultry lines may have more options for redirecting output. Businesses concentrated on conventional cuts and domestic sales are more directly exposed to price competition from pork and changing year-end purchasing patterns.

For Brazil’s wider meat industry, the central issue is the interaction of supply and substitution. A chicken market carrying 2.25 million tonnes of quarterly availability has limited room to absorb further demand weakness without additional price pressure. If pork remains competitively priced while poultry production stays high, commercial conditions for chicken suppliers could deteriorate further, even as consumers and downstream buyers benefit from greater choice and lower protein prices.