Canadian potato acreage and exports recover as costs and climate risks squeeze growers

Production rebounds from two difficult seasons

Canada’s potato industry is approaching the coming seasons with cautious optimism after weather disruption, shortages and market volatility. Victoria Stamper, general manager of the United Potato Growers of Canada, told The Scottish Farmer that poor harvests in 2021 and 2022 caused shortages across North America. Growers subsequently increased planted area and shifted toward higher-yielding yellow varieties, supporting a substantial production recovery and higher exports.

The expansion also changed the market balance. According to Stamper, the additional acreage and improved yields created oversupply in 2024 and 2025. Fresh potato prices have fallen sharply in the United States, although Canada has maintained greater stability through consistent processor demand and consumer support for domestically grown produce. The close integration of the North American market nevertheless leaves Canadian suppliers exposed to changes in US supply, prices and consumption.

Demand slows as production costs remain elevated

Economic uncertainty, changing eating habits, hotter summers and lower restaurant traffic have made trading conditions more difficult for fresh potato producers. The increasing use of GLP-1 weight-loss medicines may also be affecting food consumption and portion sizes, particularly in foodservice markets linked to potato demand. Stamper said demand slowed over the past year, especially in processing, leaving growers more cautious when planning production.

Margins remain under pressure even after some stabilisation in fuel and fertiliser prices last year. The Scottish Farmer reported sharp increases in the costs of fertiliser, crop protection products, fuel, machinery, storage energy and interest rates over recent seasons. Conflict in the Middle East has pushed fuel and fertiliser prices higher again, while curtailed global fertiliser production and shipping disruption have raised concerns about potential shortages.

Labour, weather and disease reshape investment

Potato production remains labour-intensive during planting, grading and harvesting, making seasonal worker programmes important to the industry. Growers are dealing with greater administrative requirements, worker housing obligations and competition from other sectors. Climate risks are also intensifying: producers face drought, excessive rainfall and heat, with heavy rain causing erosion and harvest delays in some regions and irrigation pressure persisting in Western Canada.

Late blight, Verticillium wilt and storage diseases remain significant threats. Possible restrictions on crop protection products are encouraging investment in integrated pest management, precision application and monitoring. Growers are adopting variable-rate fertiliser systems, soil mapping, drones and satellite imagery, while cover crops, reduced tillage and improved rotations are being used to strengthen soil health. Climate-controlled storage, real-time monitoring, moisture sensors and automated irrigation scheduling are intended to protect quality and reduce losses.

Processing and exports underpin the outlook

Canada exports frozen potato products, seed potatoes and fresh potatoes worldwide, with the United States its dominant trading partner. Investments by McCain Foods, Cavendish Farms and Lamb Weston have driven a rapid expansion of processing acreage in several provinces over the past 10 years. Contract growing now dominates many producing regions, giving farmers more market security while requiring consistent quality, sustainability reporting and compliance with processor and fast-food supply-chain standards.

International competition is increasing as processing industries expand in Europe and Asia, including among lower-cost producers in China and India. Canadian suppliers retain advantages in food safety, quality and reliable production, according to Stamper. Opportunities include further growth in frozen potato demand, automation, precision agriculture and climate-resilient varieties. The sector’s ability to capture them will depend on managing labour constraints, regulation, weather volatility and long-term production costs without creating another cycle of oversupply.