Brent Holds Above $100 as Gold Falls for a Second Week and Copper Supply Risks Persist

Oil remains supported by supply uncertainty

Brent crude stayed above $100 a barrel during the week from September 26 to October 3 as traders weighed disrupted infrastructure, recovering Middle Eastern exports and possible government intervention in fuel markets. Tinnhanhchungkhoan.vn reported that attacks damaged Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline, initially forcing exports to shift from the Red Sea port of Yanbu to Ras Tanura on the country’s eastern coast. Expectations that diplomacy could help restore shipping through the Strait of Hormuz limited the price increase.

Oil reversed lower on September 29 after Saudi Arabia restored the pipeline and resumed tanker loading at Yanbu. Brent fell 2.56% and WTI lost 3.5% in that session. Prices rose by about 1% on September 30 as US-Iran talks stalled and US fuel inventories fell sharply, before gaining about 4% on October 1 following reports that the United States planned to send another aircraft carrier and additional troops to the Middle East and that China had suspended petroleum-product exports.

The rally faded on October 2 after European leaders agreed to US President Donald Trump’s proposal to release diesel reserves. Brent settled 0.06% lower at $102.25 a barrel, leaving it up 0.11% for the week. WTI fell 1.9% to $91.11 a barrel and lost 1.6% over the week.

Low fuel stocks keep refiners and policymakers under pressure

US gasoline dropped 12.95% over the week to $3.1240 a gallon as the summer travel season ended, although inventories remained 6% below their five-year average. Gasoline was still 82.51% higher than at the beginning of the year. Heating oil rose to $4.5547 a gallon and was up 114.72% year to date, with US distillate stocks about 12% below the five-year average ahead of winter. The US administration was considering either restricting diesel exports or expanding sales of tax-exempt dyed diesel, while the Energy Department favored voluntary export restraint by refiners.

Coal traded near $145.20 a tonne as constrained supply and elevated LNG prices encouraged more coal-fired generation. Indonesia’s thermal-coal exports fell 23% year on year in August 2026 to a five-year low because of production quotas and El Niño. The International Energy Agency said congestion in the Strait of Hormuz had lifted LNG prices, prompting markets in China, India, Japan, South Korea and Europe to increase coal-fired power use.

Gold loses ground while copper fundamentals diverge

Spot gold ended October 2 near $4,142.52 an ounce, down 0.88% on the day and 3.37% for the week, its second consecutive weekly decline. Reuters recorded US spot gold at $4,140.06, while futures fell 1% to $4,162.30. The US added 29,000 jobs in September, compared with a revised 133,000 in August, while unemployment rose to 4.2% and average hourly earnings increased 0.1%. The weak report reduced expectations of an October Federal Reserve rate increase, but rising long-term Treasury yields and the dollar continued to weigh on non-yielding gold.

Copper also declined over the week, but tight availability remained a counterweight. Official London Metal Exchange prices put spot copper at $14,355 a tonne and three-month metal at $14,320 on October 2, about 2.23% below the previous week. Reuters reported a separate three-month Shanghai Futures Exchange reference of $14,374.50 a tonne, up 0.9% in the session but down about 2% over the week. SHFE-monitored inventories had fallen 79% in four months to 38,744 tonnes, their lowest since January 2024. Chilean copper production dropped 12.8% year on year in August, while rejection of a collective agreement at Escondida increased strike risk. China’s official manufacturing PMI rose to 50.1 in September from 49.8, providing a firmer demand signal for industrial metals.