Brazilian soybean prices hold at R$ 162-163 at ports despite Chicago slide

Soybean futures in Chicago closed lower on Wednesday, 23 September, but the decline did not carry through to the Brazilian physical market. According to Notícias Agrícolas, a sharp appreciation of the dollar against the real, firmer export premiums and active demand at the ports kept domestic quotations effectively unchanged from the previous session.

The November 2026 contract ended the Chicago session at US$ 13.18 per bushel, down 7.50 points. January 2027 also lost 7.50 points, to US$ 13.33¾. March 2027 slipped 6.25 points to US$ 13.42½, and May 2027 shed 5.25 points to close at US$ 13.50.

Chicago settlements

• November 2026: US$ 13.18 per bushel, down 7.50 points
• January 2027: US$ 13.33¾ per bushel, down 7.50 points
• March 2027: US$ 13.42½ per bushel, down 6.25 points
• May 2027: US$ 13.50 per bushel, down 5.25 points

Currency and premiums absorb the external loss

In Brazil the exchange rate moved in the opposite direction. The dollar gained more than 1% against the real and traded above R$ 5.17 during the session, neutralising much of the external pressure on domestic price formation.

Vlamir Brandalizze, market consultant at Brandalizze Consulting, told Notícias Agrícolas that port prices held at the same levels as the previous day. “The port market is now at R$ 162, R$ 163 in October. It is the same as yesterday, even with Chicago falling,” he said.

Brandalizze also pointed to improved premiums, running at 155 to 160 points over the values traded in Chicago, an indication that demand for Brazilian soybeans remains active at the ports. Over-the-counter levels and the internal lot market, he said, remain very close to the best point of the year. Port demand is one of the main factors sustaining domestic quotations.

Producers step back from new sales

Canal Rural reported that the physical market saw little activity on Wednesday, with producers holding back new sales and seeking better offers. The result was uneven price behaviour, with movements diverging between regions rather than following a single direction.

US harvest and the China question

The picture in Chicago is different. The US harvest is gaining pace and the yields observed so far in the main producing regions remain within expectations. Brandalizze noted that while weather-damaged areas are recording lower yields, important regions of Iowa, Illinois and Indiana are delivering better results, reinforcing the traditional harvest effect on prices. “The early American harvest and yields coming in within expectations are bringing the crop effect,” he said. Without a new demand factor to counterbalance the arrival of the crop, the seasonal tendency is for greater pressure on Chicago as fieldwork advances.

The market entered the week expecting fresh Chinese purchases of US soybeans ahead of the meeting between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping. As of Wednesday, according to Brandalizze, those anticipated sales had not appeared, removing part of the support from futures. Separately, Bessent said the United States is open to extending the trade truce with China or to closing a broader agreement.

Thursday's meeting has become the main point of attention for Chicago. In the consultant's assessment, relevant news on Chinese demand could give futures some breathing room; without it, the arrival of the US crop will weigh more heavily on prices. He recalled that Chicago had been working at its best levels in almost four years, with the main contracts above US$ 13 per bushel, opening opportunities for both sales and hedging.

For that reason, Brandalizze argued, producers should not condition their decisions solely on the outcome of the Trump–Xi meeting, on weather or on other external events, but should use current levels to structure strategies in view of possible new corrections. Chicago fell on Wednesday, but the Brazilian market continues to offer commercialisation opportunities.