Brazil’s third-quarter corn exports fall by 5.04 million tonnes as competition intensifies
Brazil exported about 11.81 million tonnes of corn from July through September, 5.04 million tonnes less than a year earlier. Stronger Argentine competition, a firmer real and weaker Iranian demand are increasing domestic availability and pressuring prices in some producing regions.
September shipments decline 31.08%
Brazil’s corn exports slowed during the peak marketing period for the country’s second crop. According to Brazilian outlet aRede, shipments from July through September totaled about 11.81 million tonnes, compared with 16.85 million tonnes in the same period of 2025. The shortfall reached approximately 5.04 million tonnes, or nearly 30%.
Foreign Trade Secretariat data cited by aRede show that Brazil exported 5.21 million tonnes in September, down 31.08% from 7.56 million tonnes a year earlier. The decline remained substantial after adjusting for fewer working days: average daily shipments fell 27.80%, from 343,770 tonnes to 248,190 tonnes.
September export revenue decreased 17.04% to $1.24 billion from $1.50 billion in 2025. A higher average export price partly offset the loss of volume. The average value rose 20.37%, from $198.45 to $238.88 per tonne.
Quarter reverses gains recorded earlier in 2026
The export gap widened through the quarter. It stood at 490,000 tonnes in July, increased to 2.19 million tonnes in August and reached 2.35 million tonnes in September. Brazil had still been ahead of the previous year through July, but cumulative exports from January through September subsequently fell to 19.70 million tonnes, against 23.31 million tonnes in the corresponding period of 2025. The resulting deficit was 3.61 million tonnes.
The slowdown has made Brazil’s current-cycle export objective harder to reach. Forecasts that had ranged from 42 million to 43 million tonnes have been revised toward 38 million tonnes. To achieve that level, specialists estimate that the country must ship at least 17 million tonnes between November and January.
Competition is one of the principal constraints. Sector assessments published by Notícias Agrícolas indicate that Argentina has expanded its presence in international shipments and is contesting established markets for Brazilian corn. The Argentine production estimate ranges from 68 million to 72 million tonnes, with an export program of about 43 million tonnes, much of which has already been registered.
Currency and demand shift corn into domestic channels
A stronger Brazilian real has also reduced the local-currency return from international corn prices. With the United States and Argentina offering more attractive prices, overseas buyers have diversified their supply. Logistics bottlenecks and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have compounded the pressure by reducing Iranian demand for Brazilian corn.
Lower exports leave more grain in Brazil even as domestic consumption grows, particularly through the expansion of the corn ethanol industry. The additional supply is not being absorbed evenly across producing regions. In Goiás, fewer exporters operating along the corridor to the port of Santos have reduced liquidity and pressured local prices.
Conditions are tighter in parts of Mato Grosso, where ethanol plants compete directly with export channels for grain. That regional contrast is likely to remain important for producers and processors assessing basis levels, storage requirements and marketing schedules. Initial projections put Argentina’s 2026/27 crop at 66 million tonnes, suggesting that competition for Brazil’s overseas markets could continue throughout 2027.
