Safras & Mercado sees record 180.1 million tonne Brazilian soybean crop in 2026/27, but El Niño caps yields
Safras & Mercado's first 2026/27 projection puts Brazil's soybean output at a record 180.1 million tonnes, up 0.98% on the year. The gain rests on a larger planted area rather than higher yields, with a more intense El Niño and rising fertiliser costs threatening productivity.
Safras & Mercado projects record Brazilian soybean crop
Brazil is on course to harvest a record 180.1 million tonnes of soybeans in the 2026/27 season, according to the first projection for the cycle released on Friday by consultancy Safras & Mercado. The figure represents growth of 0.98% over the previous cycle, a modest gain that reflects tighter margins and caution over the El Niño weather pattern, as reported by InfoMoney, Forbes Brasil and Space Money.
Brazil is the world's largest producer and exporter of the oilseed, and the Safras estimate is the first read on a season that has yet to be planted. The consultancy stressed that the production increase holds only if no relevant climate problems stem from El Niño.
Area growth, but the figures differ
Safras sees planted area expanding, with room for further gains particularly in Center-West states, according to Globo Rural, which reported area growth of 1.5%. InfoMoney, citing the same consultancy, put the increase at 1.2%, to 49.1 million hectares, with planting due to begin in mid-September. Analyst Rafael Silveira said the planting intentions point to several challenges but still support higher output, provided no relevant El Niño-related weather problems occur.
The record is being built on more land rather than better fields. With the area expansion in place, and even accounting for a slight annual decline in average productivity, Safras still sees a chance of a historic crop. The consultancy views the market as more favourable to soybeans than to corn in the center-south summer crop, which supports oilseed cultivation. Silveira said that even with tighter margins, the high yields of recent seasons improved the cost-to-revenue relationship, keeping the activity economically viable and underpinning the area increase, however small.
El Niño and cost pressures on yields
The prospect of a more intense El Niño event raises concerns for average productivity, particularly because its greatest influence is forecast for months decisive to crop development and to defining yield potential. "Should this scenario be confirmed, there could be a negative impact on productivity levels," Silveira said, adding that the consultancy is working with potential figures below last season across most regions.
High production costs, driven mainly by the rise in fertiliser prices through the first half of the year, may lead some producers to cut back on investment in technology and management — a factor that tends to limit the productive potential of the 2026/27 crop. Projected average productivity is 3,686 kilograms per hectare, against 3,692 kilograms per hectare in the previous cycle.
Global market context
The projection matters for global soy markets given Brazil's dominant position. Chinese soybean imports hit a record in June, driven by Brazilian supply, InfoMoney reported. Separately, Brazil's soybean stock projection for 2026 is the largest in nine years, according to Abiove.
