Brazilian soybean prices hold steady as thin trading and planting curb offers

Brazil's soybean market ended Tuesday, 22 September, close to unchanged, with quotations flat across most of the country's main trading hubs and firm business scarce, according to SpaceMoney and Canal Rural. Rafael Silveira, of the consultancy Safras & Mercado, said most of the offers circulating during the session were merely nominal, with no relevant momentum in either the spot market or the next crop.

Cash quotes flat, interior discounts wide

In Rio Grande do Sul, Passo Fundo was quoted at R$155.00 per sack, Santa Rosa at R$156.00 and the port of Rio Grande at R$163.00. In Parana, Cascavel eased from R$152.00 to R$151.00 and Paranagua slipped from R$163.00 to R$162.00, according to SpaceMoney. In the centre-west, Rondonopolis in Mato Grosso and Dourados in Mato Grosso do Sul were both at R$147.00, with Rio Verde in Goias at R$149.00. Canal Rural described the same picture: quotes practically stable in the main hubs, with isolated declines in the physical market and at the ports.

Premiums, the exchange rate and Chicago all moved little, keeping Brazilian cash values anchored. The US dollar ended the session down 0.08% at R$5.1027 for selling and R$5.1007 for buying, after trading between R$5.0972 and R$5.1357.

Sellers retreat as planting takes over

Ronaldo Fernandes, director of Royal Rural, told the programme Bom Dia Agronegocio that marketing has lost pace precisely as growers turn their attention to establishing the new crop. "There is demand, the domestic buyer needs soybeans, is knocking on the door, but is not finding much supply," he said. Port references for spot soybeans remain above R$160.00 per sack, while 2026/27 beans continue to work above R$150.00, Fernandes told Noticias Agricolas. He cited R$155.00 for February delivery with payment in April, and R$151.00 for March delivery, also paid in April.

The spot market has moved sideways for several weeks, losing some strength but struggling to fall consistently given domestic demand and the retreat of sellers. New-crop references, by contrast, have advanced gradually.

Chicago recovers, China meeting in focus

On the CBOT, soybean futures closed near unchanged after recovering most of the losses recorded earlier in the session. The November 2026 contract settled at US$13.25 1/2 a bushel, down 2.50 cents (0.18%), and January 2027 lost 2.75 cents (0.20%) to US$13.41 1/4. Noticias Agricolas reported March at US$13.48, down 3 points, and May at US$13.55, down 2.75 points. December soymeal gained 0.62%, or US$2.30, to US$370.70 a tonne, while December soyoil closed at 67.92 cents, down 0.93 cent (1.35%).

SpaceMoney attributed the late give-back to caution ahead of Thursday's meeting between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping at the White House. Traders expect additional Chinese purchases of US beans and are watching for a possible change in Chinese import tariffs on US soybeans, but remain prudent about concrete progress. Expectations had strengthened on Monday after Scott Bessent, head of the US Treasury, described talks with the Chinese government as successful; Trump's address to the United Nations also weighed. Agrinvest Commodities noted that Sinograin put 543,000 tonnes of imported soybeans up for auction, a move that rotates Chinese stocks and could open space for new US cargoes without confirming additional buying.

Weather becomes the next variable

Fernandes said the approach of the period in which China traditionally shifts part of its buying to the United States also feeds into Brazilian price formation and may pressure Brazilian premiums, mainly in the spot market, although he stressed the move is seasonal and does not amount to China leaving the Brazilian market. For 2026/27 he identified a different driver: "What will set the tone for this future soybean now is the weather. The weather is not in the price yet." Recent moves, he added, were determined mainly by geopolitics, with the conflict involving Russia and Ukraine affecting wheat and sunflower meal and, by substitution, corn and the soy complex. "If it weren't for geopolitics, we would already have prices in Chicago falling because of the harvest," he said. Planting of the 2026/27 crop has begun in Brazil, but a lack of soil moisture is restricting progress in Mato Grosso.