Brazilian soybean cash market holds steady as Chicago slips on Trump–Xi meeting with no new purchases

Soybean futures on the Chicago Board of Trade ended the week without clear direction and Brazilian cash prices held broadly steady, after a long-awaited meeting between US President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping delivered political results but no new commercial impulse for the oilseed. In Brazil, consultants used the lull to warn growers that an inverted price curve makes storing beans into next year a costly bet.

Truce extended to 10 November, tariffs unchanged

Notícias Agrícolas reported that the week's international attention was fixed on the Trump–Xi talks, which Victor Cazzo, market consultant at Hora Certa, characterised as strictly political and ceremonial. “The two countries have so much on the table — war, conflict, the trade balance, artificial intelligence — that soybeans end up as the ‘youngest child’ in the queue of discussions,” Cazzo said in an interview with journalist Carla Mendes on the programme Boa Tarde Agronegócio.

The practical outcomes confirmed during the week, according to the same outlet, were:

• extension of the trade truce until 10 November;
• maintenance of Chinese purchase targets of roughly 25 million to 27 million tonnes of soybeans, plus US$17 billion in purchases of other US agricultural products;
• suspension of a US$14 billion US arms sale to Taiwan;
• preliminary agreements on artificial intelligence.

No tariff changes were announced that could open new flows for agricultural commodities. With no additional demand stimulus, investors took profits on Friday morning, although Notícias Agrícolas reported that contracts recovered ground by the close.

Chicago: weak export sales add pressure

Notícia Max described a sharper intraday picture. At around 07:25 Brasília time on Friday, 25 September, the November soybean contract was down 12.75 points at US$13.04 per bushel, with January at US$13.19 and March at US$13.26, both losing more than 13 points. Corn, wheat, soybean meal and soybean oil were also trading lower. On Thursday the November contract had settled at US$13.175 per bushel, down 0.50 cent, while January ended at US$13.32, down 1.75 cent.

Demand data did not help. US Department of Agriculture figures cited by Notícia Max put net US soybean sales for the 2026/27 season at 582,400 tonnes in the week ended 17 September, below market expectations. Separately, private exporters reported a sale of 120,000 tonnes to China for delivery in the same season. Without confirmation of Chinese purchases on the scale the market had anticipated, traders began stripping out the premium embedded in prices.

Brazil: firm dollar supports cash values

In the physical market, a dollar trading near R$5.20 — supported by fiscal uncertainty and the US interest-rate outlook — kept spot quotations underpinned. Notícias Agrícolas reported business in Sorriso, Mato Grosso, between R$135 and R$138 per 60-kg bag, with Uberlândia in Minas Gerais and Dourados in Mato Grosso do Sul around R$140, and port levels testing R$160 to R$170.

In Rio Grande do Sul, references were unchanged, according to consultancy TF Agroeconômica, cited by Notícia Max: R$156.00 per bag in Passo Fundo, R$157.00 in Santa Rosa and R$164.00 in Rio Grande. The higher port value points to sustained export demand while interior trade stays limited, and the stronger dollar preserves export parity without yet prompting heavier farmer selling. Santa Catarina showed no structural change, and selling in both states remains selective: producers with storage and financial flexibility are waiting, while spot sales cover immediate needs.

The inversion warning

Cazzo flagged the gap between spot and deferred values. “Today, if the producer looks at the futures price, there is a discount of R$5 to R$10 of market inversion. For anyone holding soybeans in the spot or over-the-counter market, carrying that grain into next year brings a strong chance of losing that premium,” he said, recommending caution and an assessment of regional logistics before holding product.

With trade slow, growers are focused on sowing, and regional contrasts are pronounced. The south of Brazil faces delays caused by excess moisture, while areas of the Centre-West, including Mato Grosso, are still waiting for consistent rain. Frequent spring rainfall in the south could improve water availability but concentrated downpours narrow the windows for machinery and complicate uniform establishment. Aprosoja leader Lucas Costa Beber urged producers: “Plant, sow, do your best where you can. The rest we will mitigate and balance.” In the coming weeks, pricing is expected to hinge on South American crop weather, the pace of Chinese buying, the advance of the US harvest and moves in exchange and interest rates.