Brazil’s 2025/26 soybean exports forecast to rise 7.5% to 116.3 million tonnes

Conab expects a 7.5% export increase

Brazilian soybean exports from the 2025/26 crop are forecast to increase by 7.5% and reach 116.3 million tonnes, Globo Rural reported, citing Brazil’s National Supply Company, Conab. The projection is a significant supply signal for importers because it indicates that a larger volume of Brazilian soybeans could enter international trade during the season.

The forecast covers soybeans exported as grain. At 116.3 million tonnes, the projected flow would give overseas buyers access to more Brazilian supply than in the comparison period underlying Conab’s 7.5% growth estimate. The figures provided do not specify how the volume will be distributed among destination markets or across the marketing calendar.

Ending stocks estimated at 8.7 million tonnes

Conab calculates Brazil’s ending stocks of soybean grain at 8.7 million tonnes, according to Globo Rural. The relationship between exports and inventories will be closely watched: the expected export volume is more than thirteen times the stated ending-stock estimate. This comparison does not measure total availability, but it illustrates how strongly the outlook depends on moving the crop through export channels rather than carrying a large quantity into the following period.

For exporters, the forecast points to a larger logistical and commercial program. For importers, the central issue is whether the additional projected volume becomes available at the times and specifications required by buyers. Conab’s figures establish the expected scale of the flow, but the source material does not provide price assumptions, port schedules, destination shares or monthly shipment forecasts.

Implications for soybean and crushing markets

A 7.5% rise in Brazilian shipments would increase the amount of whole soybeans offered to the global market. That matters both to companies importing beans for direct use and to crushers producing soybean meal and soybean oil. More exportable supply can broaden procurement options, although the eventual effect on prices will also depend on demand, shipment timing and conditions in other supplying countries.

The relatively limited ending-stock estimate also matters for market analysts. If exports approach 116.3 million tonnes while stocks finish at 8.7 million tonnes, changes in shipment pace or buyer demand could have a visible effect on Brazil’s domestic balance. Importers should therefore distinguish between the full-season forecast and the volume physically available during individual purchasing windows.

Conab’s projection provides a benchmark for monitoring Brazil’s role in 2025/26 soybean trade. Subsequent estimates will show whether the anticipated 7.5% expansion remains intact and whether ending stocks continue to be assessed at 8.7 million tonnes. Until more detailed data are available, the clearest message is that Brazil is preparing to place a substantially larger soybean volume on the international market without projecting a comparably large inventory cushion.