Brazil’s soybean exports projected to reach record 110 million tonnes in 2026/27
Brazil could export a record 110 million tonnes of soybeans in 2026/27 as production rises to 180.089 million tonnes. Strong foreign demand and domestic crushing of 63.5 million tonnes would support sales, while record stocks could pressure export premiums.
Exports set to rise with another large crop
Brazilian soybean exports could reach a record 110 million tonnes in the 2026/27 season, according to projections from Safras & Mercado reported by SpaceMoney. The forecast is 2 million tonnes above the 108 million tonnes expected for 2025/26 and would reinforce Brazil’s position as the world’s leading soybean supplier.
The consultancy estimates the 2026/27 crop at 180.089 million tonnes, supported by a 1.2% expansion in planted area, high yields and firm demand. Total supply is projected at 190.7 million tonnes, including opening stocks of 9.7 million tonnes and imports of 900,000 tonnes. The figures indicate that Brazil could increase both exports and domestic processing while rebuilding inventories.
Crushing capacity strengthens domestic demand
Domestic soybean processing is expected to reach 63.5 million tonnes, up from the revised estimate of 62.5 million tonnes for 2025/26. Rafael Silveira, an analyst at Safras & Mercado, linked the increase partly to a possible rise in Brazil’s mandatory biodiesel blend to B16. The change remains under discussion, but it could lift demand for soybean oil and support crushing margins.
Total soybean demand is forecast at 177.1 million tonnes. Despite record exports and higher processing, ending stocks could rise to 13.6 million tonnes, the highest level in the historical series. According to Silveira, this comfortable supply could pressure Brazilian export premiums, particularly in the first half of 2027 if the harvest meets expectations.
Meal and oil output also expected to expand
Soybean meal production is projected at 50.1 million tonnes, providing enough supply to meet growth in domestic consumption and exports. Meal ending stocks are expected to approach 10.9 million tonnes. The outlook points to substantial availability for livestock-feed users and overseas buyers, although the source did not provide separate domestic consumption or export forecasts for meal.
Soybean oil production is forecast at 12.38 million tonnes. Domestic consumption is expected to expand as biodiesel demand potentially reaches 7 million tonnes. Oil exports are projected at 1.4 million tonnes, while ending stocks are estimated at 407,000 tonnes. A higher biodiesel mandate would direct a larger share of the oil balance toward the domestic fuel market.
Large inventories may weigh on premiums
Safras & Mercado also revised its outlook for the 2025/26 season. Production is now estimated at 178.34 million tonnes following small adjustments in Brazil’s Center-West states. Carryover stocks were reduced from 12.6 million to 9.7 million tonnes because of higher export and processing estimates. Exports remain projected at around 108 million tonnes, while favorable margins have supported the upward revision in crushing to 62.5 million tonnes.
The 2026/27 balance would give Brazil enough soybeans to serve Chinese demand and other import markets while supplying its biodiesel, vegetable-oil and meal industries. For producers and traders, however, greater availability creates a marketing challenge: a record crop combined with 13.6 million tonnes of ending stocks could weaken export premiums during the main selling period. Crushers may benefit from greater feedstock availability, but their outlook will also depend on whether the proposed B16 blend is adopted.
