Brazil projects 180.4 million-tonne soybean crop as domestic crushing accelerates

Brazil raises soybean production and processing outlook

Brazil’s soybean production is projected to reach a record 180.4 million tonnes, reinforcing the country’s position in the global markets for soybeans, soybean meal and soybean oil. The forecast was reported by Notícias do Agro, citing data from the Brazilian Association of Vegetable Oil Industries, ABIOVE, and is consistent with official estimates from Brazil’s National Supply Company, Conab.

ABIOVE expects Brazil to export 115.4 million tonnes of soybeans while processing 63.3 million tonnes domestically. The figures show how the sector is expanding both its role as a supplier of unprocessed beans and its industrial production of higher-value derivatives. External demand remains strong, but domestic consumption—particularly from the biodiesel industry—is also supporting crushing volumes.

Crushing growth lifts meal and oil supplies

Brazil processed 4.95 million tonnes of soybeans in June, 7.3% more than in the same month a year earlier. Crushing during the first six months reached 28.30 million tonnes, an increase of 7.7% year on year. This pace indicates heavier use of domestic plants and provides additional supplies of meal for animal feed and oil for food, industrial and energy markets.

Soybean meal production is estimated at 48.7 million tonnes. ABIOVE raised its meal export forecast by 1.6% from its previous estimate to 25.3 million tonnes, reflecting stronger demand from overseas buyers. Daniel Furlan Amaral, ABIOVE’s director of Economics and Regulatory Affairs, said the revision reflected sustained momentum in domestic processing and solid external demand driven by increasing meal exports.

Soybean oil production is forecast at 12.7 million tonnes. Exports are expected to total 1.7 million tonnes, while complementary imports are projected at 125,000 tonnes. The relatively small import requirement compared with domestic output illustrates the scale of Brazil’s oil supply, although most production must also serve the country’s large internal market.

Biodiesel mandate strengthens domestic demand

The B14 mandate, which raised the compulsory biodiesel share in petroleum diesel to 14% from March 2024, has become a major driver of domestic soybean crushing. Soybean oil accounts for about 70% of the feedstock used in Brazilian biodiesel, according to Notícias do Agro. Higher mandated consumption therefore creates a direct incentive for processors to crush more beans even when export conditions for individual derivatives fluctuate.

This policy link gives crushers a substantial domestic outlet for oil while meal generated in the same process can be sold to livestock industries at home or abroad. For producers, the expansion of processing creates another source of demand alongside direct soybean exports. For traders and feed buyers, it means Brazil’s crop size increasingly affects not only the availability of beans but also global meal and vegetable-oil balances.

Brazil gains ground in export markets

Notícias do Agro reported that Brazilian suppliers have occupied part of the space left by Argentina in the global soybean meal market as Argentine production suffered from severe drought and domestic economic uncertainty. Brazilian plants increased operations to supply customers in Europe and Asia, strengthening competition in a market where Argentina has traditionally been a leading exporter.

Brazilian growers nevertheless faced drought in the Center-West and excessive rainfall in the South associated with El Niño. Planted area continued to expand despite those difficulties. China also maintained strong demand for Brazilian soybeans, supported by favorable margins in its hog sector, according to the publication.

The combination of a projected 180.4 million-tonne crop, 115.4 million tonnes of bean exports and growing domestic crushing gives Brazil several channels through which to market its harvest. Execution will depend on crop performance, plant throughput and sustained foreign demand, but the current projections point to larger Brazilian supplies across all three major soybean products.