Brazil overtakes EU as top live cattle supplier to North Africa and Middle East
Over the past decade Brazil has displaced the European Union as the leading live cattle exporter to North Africa and the Middle East, driven by far more competitive prices. EU shipments to third countries fell to 500,000 head in 2025 as Australia also retreated from the market.
Brazil overtakes the EU in North Africa and the Middle East
Over the past decade Brazil has displaced the European Union as the leading exporter of live cattle to North Africa and the Middle East, the most contested market in the global livestock trade, according to French farm outlet Web-agri, citing agroeconomists Maximin Bonnet and Cassandre Matras of Idele at a June 12 briefing on world meat markets.
In 2025 more than 4.7 million live non-breeding cattle were exported worldwide, excluding intra-EU flows. Global trade splits into regional blocs: a closed North American loop between Mexico, the United States and Canada, and Southeast Asian flows dominated by Australian shipments to Indonesia. The North Africa and Middle East zone is the most fought over, and its import patterns have shifted sharply.
In 2015 the EU was the main supplier to the region, with large flows to Israel, Turkey, Lebanon, Libya and the Maghreb. In 2025 Brazil alone exported more than 1 million cattle, overwhelmingly to this zone, with Turkey, Morocco, Egypt and Iraq the leading buyers. "For three years we have seen an explosion of exports from South America to the Mediterranean," Bonnet said.
Price gap drives the shift
The main driver is price. Between 2022 and 2025 the average unit price of EU live non-breeding cattle rose by nearly 531 €/head, approaching 1,500 €/head in 2025. Over the same period Brazil's export price fell 60 €/head, Colombia's 35 €/head and Australia's 475 €/head. The competitiveness gap leaves little room for European exporters in markets made up largely of price-sensitive middle-income countries.
Morocco illustrates the turn. Until 2022 it imported almost only European cattle, mainly Spanish. European animals still dominated in 2023 and 2024, but at sharply higher prices, from 800 to 1,500 €/head. In 2025 Morocco shifted massively to Brazil and Uruguay, pulling down its average import price. Lebanon followed a similar path, and Turkey cut European purchases to near zero, citing aggressive South American pricing.
EU supply shrinks as Australia retreats
Total EU live cattle exports to third countries fell from more than 700,000 head in 2024 to 500,000 in 2025. Romania, Spain and Portugal are holding on, with Croatia and Hungary to a lesser degree, while France and Ireland — significant exporters in 2015 — have collapsed. French cattle have been barred from third countries since last summer because of lumpy skin disease, Bonnet noted. He identified a shortage of supply as the main cause of the European decline, as domestic demand keeps lean cattle on the continent and supports prices.
Australia is also retreating. The world's second-largest live cattle exporter a decade ago, it is cutting shipments under public pressure over animal welfare and long-distance sea transport, and will ban live sheep exports by sea from 2028. Australian live non-breeding cattle exports fell from more than 1.2 million head in 2015 to about 650,000 in 2025, concentrated on Indonesia and, to a lesser extent, Vietnam.
Risks for 2026
Several factors could reshape flows in 2026. High global fertilizer prices could curb fodder production in importing countries and their ability to fatten imported animals, though Algeria could benefit from higher gas prices. A strong El Niño expected in the coming weeks may bring dry conditions to Australia, India and South America, affecting fodder and export availability. Middle East tensions persist, particularly in Lebanon. On the demand side, Matras noted that the 2026 Hajj drew more pilgrims than a year earlier, a positive signal for imports by Saudi Arabia, whose live cattle demand remains significant.