Brazil’s meat output to reach 34.26 million tonnes in 2027 as beef supply contracts
Conab expects Brazil’s combined beef, pork and poultry production to increase to 34.08 million tonnes in 2026 and 34.26 million tonnes in 2027. Growth in pork and chicken will offset a 3.6% decline in beef output next year, while exports of all three proteins are forecast to rise.
Pork and poultry lift total meat production
Brazil’s combined production of beef, pork and poultry is forecast to reach 34.08 million tonnes in 2026, up 2% from 2025, according to the National Supply Company, Conab. Output is expected to increase by another 0.5% to 34.26 million tonnes in 2027, as gains in pork and chicken compensate for a contraction in beef supply.
Conab presented the projections on September 15 during its Agricultural Outlook for the 2026/27 Season event. The agency expects the overall volume of meat available in Brazil’s domestic market to remain stable at around 22 million tonnes, despite continued growth in overseas shipments.
Pork production is forecast to rise by 4.79% to 5.93 million tonnes in 2026, supported by expansion of the breeding herd and productivity gains. Exports are projected to grow by 6.49% to 1.58 million tonnes, while domestic availability increases by 4.28% to 4.36 million tonnes. In 2027, output is expected to reach 6.15 million tonnes, up 3.7%, with exports at 1.65 million tonnes and domestic availability at 4.52 million tonnes.
Chicken exports recover after avian influenza disruption
Chicken production is projected to increase by 3.1% to 16.3 million tonnes in 2026. Conab expects exports to jump by 11.53% to 5.76 million tonnes after key importing countries resumed purchases that had been affected in 2025 by an avian influenza case in Rio Grande do Sul.
Growth should moderate in 2027, when chicken output is forecast at a record 16.7 million tonnes. Exports are expected to rise by 0.8% to 5.8 million tonnes, while domestic availability increases by 3.2%, from 10.57 million tonnes in 2026 to 10.9 million tonnes. The figures indicate that additional production will be directed primarily toward Brazil’s domestic market.
Cattle cycle limits beef supply
Beef is moving in the opposite direction. Production is estimated at 11.84 million tonnes in 2026, slightly below the 11.9 million tonnes reported for 2025. Conab forecasts a sharper 3.6% decline to about 11.4 million tonnes in 2027 as producers retain more females to rebuild herds, reducing the number of cattle available for slaughter.
BP Money reported that the reversal of the cattle cycle has progressed more slowly than initially expected. Slaughter during the first half of 2026 remained above the previous year’s level, while heavier carcasses and more intensive feedlot use helped sustain production. Rising prices for calves and replacement cattle, however, point to tighter availability and strengthen the incentive to retain breeding females.
Beef exports are nevertheless forecast to rise. Conab estimates 2026 shipments at 4.73 million tonnes, up 4.46%, despite the end of China’s import quota for the year, a European embargo on Brazilian beef and United States tariffs. For 2027, Conab projects exports of 4.843 million tonnes; BP Money rounded the forecast to 4.8 million tonnes and described it as a 2.2% increase. Domestic beef consumption remains moderate as lower-income households favor cheaper cuts and chicken or pork, limiting retailers’ ability to pass higher cattle prices fully on to consumers.
Egg supply also expands
Conab expects egg production to reach 49.7 billion units in 2026, up 1.37% from its estimate for 2025. Production is forecast to grow by a further 3.3% to 51.3 billion units in 2027, supporting increased availability in Brazil’s domestic market.
