Brazil gains ground in Egypt’s corn market as Black Sea disruption sidelines Ukraine
Brazilian and Argentine corn accounted for 88% of Egypt’s imports through September 15 as Ukrainian shipments almost disappeared. US suppliers have an opportunity to expand, but prices, freight structures and currency risks continue to limit their competitiveness.
South America fills the Ukrainian supply gap
Brazil is consolidating its position in Egypt’s corn market as disruption in the Black Sea removes Ukrainian grain from one of its established destinations. Enterprise reported that Egypt had received no Ukrainian corn shipment since May, despite imports from that origin usually peaking between October and March. In the first half of September, no local importer bought US corn, while Brazilian grain accounted for 100% of arriving cargoes, according to tracking data shared with Enterprise by Mediterranean Star Trading general manager Hisham Suleiman.
Brazilian and Argentine corn together represented 88% of Egypt’s imports through September 15, with shares of 60% and 28%, respectively. Ukraine supplied 8% and the United States 2%. A further 1.3 million tonnes of Brazilian corn was expected to arrive by October 15. Brazil’s share had already reached 51.4% by mid-May, compared with 17.8% for Argentina and 17.5% for Ukraine, indicating that the move toward South American supply began before the latest deterioration in Black Sea logistics.
Freight and pricing constrain US suppliers
S&P Global Commodities said US corn could capture a larger share this season as Egyptian buyers diversify away from Ukraine. Traders interviewed by Enterprise were more cautious. Platts assessed Ukrainian corn at about $226 per tonne FOB for October-loading cargoes, against $251.28 per tonne FOB US Gulf as of September 16. Suleiman said US exporters would need to offer prices around EGP 500-600 per tonne below Brazilian and Argentine corn to gain access to the market.
Shipment size and contract structure add to the disadvantage. Egyptian buyers commonly import Ukrainian corn on vessels carrying about 30,000 tonnes, while moving similarly sized cargoes from the United States would raise freight and delivered costs. Ukrainian corn is normally sold at a fixed price. US corn is priced as a premium over Chicago futures, leaving importers exposed to changes in both the premium and the futures market.
Black Sea delays raise feed-sector risk
Ukrainian grain shipments now take more than a month to reach their destinations, compared with about 12 days previously, because vessels can wait for weeks to enter and leave the Danube through the Sulina Canal. Ukraine redirected exports to the river after Russian attacks closed its principal Black Sea ports, which had handled about 90% of the country’s grain exports. Subsequent attacks on riverside infrastructure further disrupted the route.
Small-vessel freight from the Black Sea has risen from $50 to $130 per tonne within 60 days following increases in Brent crude prices, Enterprise reported. Longer transit times also increase Egyptian importers’ exposure to exchange-rate movements when documents are settled. The combination of a volatile Egyptian pound, a stronger dollar and extended voyages complicates purchasing decisions even where physical demand remains firm.
Egypt expands storage and Brazilian ties
Egypt’s corn imports are forecast to reach 10.5 million tonnes in fiscal year 2026/27. Corn represents 60-70% of locally produced livestock, poultry and aquaculture feed, while domestic production covers less than 40% of demand. Feed manufacturers therefore remain highly exposed to global grain prices, freight rates and currency conditions. Suleiman said mills are concentrating on Brazilian and Argentine origins, which they consider higher quality.
Egypt has also expanded its national silo project to 81 facilities by 2025, increasing storage capacity from 1.5 million to 3.6 million tonnes, with a target of 6 million tonnes by 2030. A Suez Canal Economic Zone delegation held talks in São Paulo on creating a global grain hub and logistics distribution center ahead of a planned Brazilian trade mission in early December. The discussions build on feasibility studies launched by seven Brazilian investors in 2024 for a logistics zone handling corn, soybean and sugar for re-export to Arab and African markets.
