Brazil’s Corn-Ethanol Output Forecast to Reach 11.8 Billion Liters in 2026/27
Brazilian corn-ethanol production is forecast to rise 14.6% to 11.8 billion liters in 2026/27, according to Datagro. New capacity is expanding domestic fuel supply while creating additional demand for corn and biomass, with maritime transport emerging as a potential market.
Output forecast rises 14.6%
Brazilian corn-ethanol production is expected to reach 11.8 billion liters in the 2026/27 season, according to an estimate from Datagro President Plinio Nastari reported by NovaCana. The forecast represents growth of 14.6% from the 10.3 billion liters produced in 2025/26, extending the rapid expansion of a segment that has become an increasingly important contributor to Brazil’s fuel supply.
The increase is being supported by new industrial capacity and the development of additional markets for ethanol. Brazil currently has 33 corn-ethanol plants: 20 dedicated exclusively to corn and 13 flex facilities capable of processing both corn and sugarcane. Nastari said the sector’s production capacity increased by about 1.5 billion liters this year alone. The expansion raises demand for corn from Brazilian growers while giving processors another route to monetize the country’s grain production.
New supply changes the ethanol balance
Corn ethanol is also contributing to higher total output in Brazil’s Center-South, the country’s main ethanol-producing region. Datagro forecasts regional production of 37.12 billion liters in 2026/27, including corn-based fuel. That would be about 3.4 billion liters above the 33.7 billion liters produced in the previous season.
The additional supply could improve fuel availability, but it also increases the importance of finding demand beyond existing road-fuel channels. Corn plants can operate on a different production calendar from sugarcane mills, making them a source of ethanol outside the traditional cane-harvesting cycle. For producers and distributors, rising output therefore affects storage, logistics and the timing of sales as well as the overall volume available to the market.
Industrial growth is also tightening the market for biomass used to generate energy at ethanol plants. According to Nastari, eucalyptus wood-chip prices have risen from around R$ 60 to between R$ 150 and R$ 250 per cubic meter, an increase of 150% over six years, partly because of the sector’s expansion. Producers are increasing eucalyptus planting to replace wood from authorized clearing of native vegetation, which may be legal but does not meet the sustainability expectations of some markets.
Shipping offers a potential demand channel
Maritime transport could provide a much larger outlet for ethanol as shipping companies seek alternatives to fossil bunker fuel. Nastari estimates that ethanol used in place of bunker could represent a potential market of 50 billion liters by 2050. He said ethanol was cheaper than bunker for shipping companies during three non-consecutive weeks in 2026, even after adjusting for the fuels’ different energy content.
About 70 vessels are already equipped with flexible engines capable of consuming fuels including ethanol and methanol, according to the Datagro executive. A further 400 vessels are expected to be under order or commissioning by the end of 2027. The figures indicate an opening for Brazilian suppliers, but the scale and timing of demand will depend on vessel deployment, fuel infrastructure and buyers’ sustainability requirements. For Brazil’s corn-ethanol industry, the immediate effect remains greater domestic supply and stronger competition for corn, biomass and logistics capacity.
