Brazil’s 2026/27 corn crop could reach record 144.96 million tonnes
Safras & Mercado expects Brazilian corn production to rise by more than 3% to a record 144.96 million tonnes in 2026/27. A larger second crop and higher average yields should offset a reduction in first-crop area, although credit constraints and El Niño remain risks.
Output forecast to rise more than 3%
Brazil could produce a record 144.96 million tonnes of corn in the 2026/27 season, an increase of more than 3% from the previous crop, according to a Safras & Mercado estimate reported by Reuters and published by Forbes Brasil. The consultancy based its forecast on modest growth in planted area and an improvement in average yields.
Total corn area is projected at 21.95 million hectares, up 0.3% from 2025/26. The small overall increase masks a change in the composition of planting: expansion in the Centre-South second crop and in the North and Northeast is expected to more than offset a 1.3% contraction in first-crop area.
The forecast places Safras & Mercado above the US Department of Agriculture’s May projection. InfoMoney reported that the USDA expected Brazil to harvest 139 million tonnes in 2026/27, compared with 135 million tonnes in the current season and 136 million tonnes in the preceding one. The difference between the forecasts underlines the importance of planting decisions and realised yields as the season develops.
Second crop drives expected expansion
Safras & Mercado expects first-crop corn area to fall to 3.56 million hectares. Consultant Paulo Molinari said current production costs and corn prices do not encourage producers to expand summer planting. Credit is also difficult to obtain, increasing the use of barter arrangements in which farmers exchange future crops for inputs.
According to Molinari, new-crop soybean prices offer better economics than corn under those arrangements. The consultancy therefore expects producers to favour soybeans during the summer and plant more corn as a second crop. This allocation is particularly important because the Centre-South second crop accounts for most of Brazil’s corn area.
Centre-South second-crop planting is forecast at 15.8 million hectares, 0.3% above the previous cycle. Safras & Mercado projects production from that crop at a record 103.969 million tonnes, compared with 99.610 million tonnes expected for the current season. That increase would supply most of the growth in national output and reinforce the second crop’s central role in Brazilian availability.
Exports and global supply support the outlook
The USDA forecast cited by InfoMoney expects Brazilian corn exports to increase from 43 million tonnes to 44 million tonnes in 2026/27. It also projects global consumption at a record 1.315 billion tonnes, exceeding production by 19.4 million tonnes, and global ending stocks falling to 277.5 million tonnes, the lowest level since 2013/14 if confirmed. These conditions could support demand for Brazilian supply, although the USDA and International Grains Council differ on the size of the world crop.
InfoMoney reported a USDA global production forecast of 1.295 billion tonnes. Reuters, through Forbes Brasil, later reported that the IGC had raised its estimate to 1.310 billion tonnes, still below the previous season’s 1.339 billion tonnes. Weather remains a major variable: the IGC said El Niño was under way and could intensify during the second half of the year, increasing yield variability for Southern Hemisphere crops. For Brazilian producers, traders and exporters, the record forecast consequently depends on both the planned shift toward second-crop corn and favourable execution of the planting and harvest calendar.
