Brazil’s 2026/27 cane crop forecast to rise 4.7% to 705.2 million tonnes
Brazil’s sugarcane harvest is forecast to reach 705.2 million tonnes in 2026/27, up 4.7% from the previous season. Conab expects record ethanol production but a 2.9% decline in sugar output.
Better weather supports a larger harvest
Brazil’s 2026/27 sugarcane crop is forecast at 705.2 million tonnes, an increase of 4.7% from the previous season, according to an estimate from the National Supply Company, Conab, reported by Tribuna do Paraná. The expansion would restore part of the supply lost under less favorable conditions in 2025/26 and give Brazilian mills more raw material to allocate between sugar and ethanol.
The harvested area is expected to increase by 1.1% to 9.1 million hectares, while average productivity is forecast to rise by 3.6%. Tribuna do Paraná reported the yield estimate as 77.9 kilograms per hectare. Conab attributed the production increase to both the larger harvested area and favorable weather. Fabiano Vasconcellos, Conab’s crop monitoring manager, said rainfall during the current season was closer to normal than in the previous cycle.
Southeast remains the production center
The Southeast is expected to account for 451.4 million tonnes, or almost two-thirds of the national crop. The Center-West is forecast to harvest 157 million tonnes, followed by the Northeast with 55.5 million tonnes. Production is projected at 37.3 million tonnes in the South and 4.1 million tonnes in the North.
The regional distribution keeps most of the additional cane close to Brazil’s principal processing base. For mills, however, a larger crop does not automatically translate into more sugar. Companies can adjust the processing mix according to sugar returns, domestic fuel demand and the relative economics of hydrous and anhydrous ethanol.
Ethanol rises while sugar output declines
Conab expects sugar production to decrease by 2.9% to 42.89 million tonnes despite the larger cane harvest. The forecast indicates that the extra agricultural supply will not be directed primarily toward sugar. Brazil would nevertheless retain a significant position in global sugar production, while the lower output limits the volume of new supply that the larger cane crop could add to the international market.
Total ethanol production is forecast to set a record at 41.88 billion liters. Sugarcane ethanol output is projected to rise by 9.7% to 29.98 billion liters, while corn ethanol is expected to grow by 22.4% to 4.86 billion liters. Across feedstocks, production is forecast to comprise 15.24 billion liters of anhydrous ethanol and 26.64 billion liters of hydrous ethanol. The figures point to a stronger fuel-oriented season: mills gain more cane, corn ethanol continues to expand, and sugar buyers face a projected reduction in Brazilian output rather than the increase that the headline crop number might suggest.
