Brazil’s 2026 soybean exports forecast at record 115.4 million tonnes

Export forecast reaches a record

Brazilian soybean exports are forecast to reach a record 115.4 million tonnes in 2026, according to industry group Abiove. The estimate is 1.1% above the group’s June forecast and reinforces Brazil’s position as the world’s largest soybean producer and exporter.

The revision points to another year of exceptionally large volumes moving from Brazilian farms and ports into the global market. At 115.4 million tonnes, exports would remain the main outlet for the country’s soybean supply, even as domestic processors are expected to handle more beans. The source material does not provide a breakdown by destination or specify the production estimate supporting the forecast.

Crushing estimate also increases

Abiove raised its forecast for Brazil’s soybean crushing to 63.3 million tonnes in 2026 from 63.0 million tonnes previously. The 300,000-tonne increase indicates that domestic demand from crushing plants is expected to grow alongside exports of whole soybeans.

Higher crushing volumes increase the supply of soybean meal and soybean oil available for domestic consumption or export. However, Abiove reduced its soybean meal export forecast to 24.9 million tonnes, a decrease of 50,000 tonnes from the previous estimate. The combination of a higher crushing forecast and a slightly lower meal export outlook suggests that part of the additional output may be absorbed domestically or reflected in inventories and other uses, although the supplied report does not give a detailed balance.

For processors, the revised figures imply continued competition with exporters for soybean supplies. Crushing plants need enough beans to maintain utilization, while exporters are expected to ship a record volume. The scale of both projections makes procurement, storage and transport capacity important operational considerations across Brazil’s soy chain.

Revenue rises as inventories tighten

Projected Brazilian export revenue from soybeans, soybean meal and soybean oil was raised to $60.6 billion for 2026. Abiove’s previous forecast, issued the prior month, was $59.9 billion. The $700 million upward revision covers the combined soy complex rather than soybeans alone.

The higher revenue estimate accompanies a substantial reduction in projected year-end soybean stocks. Abiove now expects Brazil to finish 2026 with 6.58 million tonnes of soybeans, down from the previous forecast of 7.87 million tonnes. That is a reduction of 1.29 million tonnes. Even after the revision, the projected inventory would be the highest since 2019.

The stock adjustment matters because it narrows the buffer between Brazil’s export commitments, domestic crushing requirements and available supply. A 6.58-million-tonne carryout would still be historically elevated compared with every year since 2019, but it would provide less flexibility than Abiove expected previously. Any divergence in crop availability, processing demand or shipment performance could therefore have a larger effect on the final balance.

Implications for the global soy market

The revised forecast strengthens expectations that Brazil will remain the central supplier of soybeans to international buyers in 2026. Record exports of whole beans combined with crushing of 63.3 million tonnes would require the domestic logistics system to serve both export terminals and processing facilities at significant scale.

For traders and importers, the headline figure signals ample Brazilian export availability, but the lower stock forecast limits the impression of an unrestricted surplus. Processors face the same tension: more crushing is forecast, yet whole-bean exports are also moving higher. The resulting allocation of soybeans between ports and plants will shape supplies of meal and oil, including whether Abiove’s slightly lower meal export forecast is realized.

Abiove’s revisions collectively describe a larger commercial year for Brazil’s soy sector. Export revenue is now expected to reach $60.6 billion, whole-bean shipments are forecast at a record 115.4 million tonnes, and crushing is projected to rise to 63.3 million tonnes. At the same time, the lower closing-stock estimate shows that stronger activity would absorb more of the available supply than previously anticipated.