Brazil’s 2026/27 Soybean Forward Sales Reach 29.1%, Exceeding Five-Year Average
Brazilian producers had sold 29.1% of the expected 2026/27 soybean crop by September 4, ahead of both last year and the five-year average. Stronger domestic prices, gains in Chicago and exchange-rate movements accelerated contracting, particularly in Mato Grosso and Matopiba.
Forward sales move ahead of historical pace
Brazilian farmers had forward-sold 29.1% of the country’s expected 2026/27 soybean crop by September 4, according to data compiled by SAFRAS & Mercado and reported by Notícias Agrícolas. That represents a theoretical 52.42 million tonnes committed from potential national production of 180.08 million tonnes.
The sales rate is well above the 20.2% recorded at the same point in the 2025/26 cycle and the five-year average of 22.7%. The acceleration followed a week of stronger soybean prices in Brazil and on the Chicago Board of Trade, supported by gains in international grain markets and heightened macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainty.
SAFRAS & Mercado analyst Rafael Silveira said new-crop prices were more attractive than those available during the previous season. He cautioned, however, that production and particularly yields remain the central risks. Chicago prices could test higher levels depending on the size of the US crop and the progress of South American production, he said.
Mato Grosso and Matopiba lead contracting
Mato Grosso, Brazil’s largest soybean-producing state, had already sold 41% of its future crop, equivalent to more than 20.5 million tonnes. Significant rainfall reached the state in recent days, supporting the start of fieldwork after the sanitary fallow ended on September 6.
Tocantins led the country in proportional terms, with 42% of expected production sold. Piauí had contracted 36% and Maranhão 35%, confirming the strong forward-selling pace across the Matopiba agricultural frontier. By contrast, producers in southern Brazil remained more cautious because of recurring climate risks. Rio Grande do Sul had sold 15% of a crop exceeding 21 million tonnes, while Santa Catarina had sold 16%.
Silveira said the current price window allows growers to lock in production costs, but advised against committing too much grain before crop potential becomes clearer. He added that, under tighter supply conditions, port prices could approach R$170.00 per 60-kilogram bag, although the outcome would depend on the potential impact of El Niño.
Old-crop sales also accelerate
Chicago soybean futures declined on Friday, September 4, but still ended the week higher. The November contract gained 1.6% over the week to close at US$12.93 per bushel after trading above US$13.00 for much of the period. March futures reached US$13.30, up 1.8% on the week. Alongside currency movements, those gains helped push new-crop soybean prices at Brazilian ports above R$150.00 per bag. Spot soybeans ended the week above R$160.00 per bag at ports.
Sales of the 2025/26 crop reached 88.7%, or 158.16 million tonnes from estimated production of 178.34 million tonnes. That exceeded both the previous year’s 84.1% and the five-year average of 86.4%. Tocantins and Piauí had each sold 98% of production, followed by Maranhão at 97%, Bahia and Mato Grosso at 96%. Southern sales remained slower: Paraná reached 83%, Santa Catarina 80% and Rio Grande do Sul 69%, leaving its producers with a comparatively larger volume available for future physical-market opportunities.
