Black Sea grain prices consolidate as French wheat forecast falls to 30.8 million tonnes
Grain markets stabilized after a sharp rally, with milling wheat reaching €219 per tonne DAP Constanța and September MATIF wheat closing at €234.75 per tonne. Argus Media expects France to produce 30.8 million tonnes of soft wheat in 2026, below both last year’s output and the official forecast.
European grain markets pause after rally
European grain prices entered a consolidation phase after the strong rally of the previous week, as traders weighed continuing Black Sea risks against the absence of further escalation over the weekend. Agrointel reported that September wheat on Euronext/MATIF closed almost unchanged at €234.75 per tonne on Monday after gaining 8.4% during the preceding week.
The market stabilized after attacks involving Russia and Ukraine against ships and port infrastructure did not intensify over the weekend. Russia’s principal terminal at Novorossiysk was not affected. However, firm FOB wheat prices across the Black Sea basin continued to support the European market.
Constanța prices rise across major crops
At the Romanian port of Constanța, milling wheat rose to approximately €219 per tonne DAP from €203 one week earlier. Feed wheat increased to €204 from €192 per tonne, while barley advanced to €189 from €173. Corn reached about €200 per tonne, rapeseed climbed to €530 from €507, and sunflower seed remained near €499 per tonne DAP amid steady processor interest and limited supply.
Russian wheat also strengthened. According to IKAR, 12.5% protein wheat for August delivery gained $7 to reach $235 per tonne FOB. SovEcon placed the market at $238–241 per tonne, compared with $227–229 one week earlier. Navigation restrictions in the Sea of Azov and elevated logistics costs prompted SovEcon to cut its Russian wheat export forecast for July by 0.5 million tonnes to 1.5 million tonnes, even as harvested wheat volume reached 15.9 million tonnes.
In Ukraine, growing availability of new-crop rapeseed is exerting downward pressure on prices while logistical bottlenecks and slower shipments through Black Sea ports constrain exports. Domestic processors reduced purchase prices to $500–520 per tonne CPT plant. Offers at the western border stood at $545–563 per tonne DAP. Seasonal supply is expected to keep the market under pressure unless normal maritime export flows resume.
French crop estimate undershoots official forecast
Argus Media estimates that French soft-wheat production will total 30.8 million tonnes in 2026, 7.6% below the previous year and lower than the French Agriculture Ministry’s official forecast of 32 million tonnes. The decline was linked to a dry spring and repeated heatwaves, which reduced yields to 6.67 tonnes per hectare, 6.5% below the ten-year average.
High temperatures nevertheless accelerated crop maturity and supported grain quality. The harvested wheat showed high protein content, strong test weights and low moisture, characteristics that could help French supplies compete in export markets despite the smaller crop.
Tunisian tender offers a test of competitiveness
Tunisia’s state grain agency launched an international tender for 75,000 tonnes of milling wheat of optional origin. Bids were due by 21 July, with delivery divided into three 25,000-tonne lots for shipment between 10 August and 9 September, depending on origin. In its previous purchase in June, Tunisia bought the same volume at $268.16 per tonne C&F.
The tender provides a direct test of the relative competitiveness of European Union and Black Sea wheat. The combination of lower expected French production, higher Russian FOB quotations and stronger Constanța prices may narrow suppliers’ room to discount. For traders, the next direction will depend on whether Black Sea logistics normalize and whether geopolitical support for prices persists after the recent rally.
