Argentina and Uruguay Raise Their Share of Global Dairy Trade to 4.3%

South American exporters gain ground

Argentina and Uruguay raised their combined share of global dairy trade from 3% in 2017 to 4.3% in 2025, emerging as one of the fastest-growing exporter groups over the period. According to Ámbito, citing RaboResearch’s World Dairy Map 2026, worldwide dairy trade increased 11% from 91.1 million to 101.2 million tonnes in liquid milk equivalent during those eight years.

Growth averaged 2% a year, despite a setback in 2022, when New Zealand’s milk production fell almost 4%. A 5% rise in international trade in 2025 offset a weak 2024. Demand for cheese and butter supplied much of the momentum, while trade volumes for milk powders were broadly stagnant.

EU leadership narrows as rivals expand

The European Union remained the largest exporter in 2025, shipping 27.5 million tonnes excluding trade within the bloc. Its global share nevertheless declined from 30% in 2017 to 27%. New Zealand retained its position as the largest individual-country exporter, accounting for 22% of the market, while the United States increased its share from 11.3% to 13.5%.

Product allocation is changing alongside exporter rankings. EU milk production grew only 5% from 2017, but cheese output increased 9% and cheese exports rose 12% as processors directed more milk into higher-value products. EU whole milk powder exports fell by more than half, from 387,000 to 172,000 tonnes. Argentina and the United Kingdom captured part of the space vacated by European suppliers, although New Zealand still controlled 53% of the global whole milk powder market.

Cheese and butter drive shipment growth

Global cheese trade reached 8.96 million tonnes in 2025, 40% above the 2017 level, with a compound annual growth rate of 3.3%. Growth accelerated between 2024 and 2025. Argentina and the United States both doubled cheese exports from 2017, and the United States became the second-largest supplier behind the combined EU and UK market.

Butter trade, which had remained close to 2 million tonnes annually since 2018, increased 9% to 2.23 million tonnes in 2025. US exports nearly tripled from 45,000 to 123,000 tonnes, compared with increases of 44,000 tonnes for New Zealand and 19,000 tonnes for Argentina. Skimmed milk powder exports rose only 0.5% in 2025, while US shipments dropped 6% year on year because of uncompetitive prices. Whey trade remained near 3.5 million tonnes, but its value continued to benefit from demand for protein-rich nutrition.

Demand diversifies beyond China

China remained the leading importer, purchasing 11.7 million tonnes together with Hong Kong and Macao. Its imports have declined since their 2021 peak, however, with purchases of liquid milk, cream and milk powders falling by as much as 50% as domestic production expanded. Exporters are consequently pursuing markets including Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Oman. Malaysia and Thailand are also growing strongly, while Vietnam and Indonesia are advancing more slowly. Brazil’s imports rose from 1.3 million to 2.3 million tonnes from 2022, led by cheese and milk powders.

RaboResearch sees increasingly limited production growth in Europe because of tighter regulation, an ageing producer base and already high yields. Argentina moved from an 8% production decline between 2022 and 2024 to growth of 10% in 2025 and 7% in the first quarter of 2026, although the report described its political and economic environment as highly volatile. The United States offers more predictable expansion, supported by a record dairy herd of 9.65 million head and a 6% increase in cheese-processing capacity in 2025. India, despite being the largest milk producer, remains focused on domestic consumption: its whole milk powder exports fell from 1,800 to 1,100 tonnes between 2024 and 2025.