Argentina and Uruguay Lift Their Share of Global Dairy Trade to 4.3%

South American suppliers expand their position

Argentina and Uruguay raised their combined share of global dairy trade from 3% in 2017 to 4.3% in 2025, according to figures from RaboResearch reported by Fedeleche. The increase of 1.3 percentage points came as the international market continued to grow but its main sources of supply and demand shifted.

The European Union remained the largest exporting bloc, shipping 27.5 million tonnes of milk equivalent in 2025 when trade between member states is excluded. However, its share of global commerce declined from 30% in 2017 to 27% in 2025. New Zealand remained the largest individual exporting country with about 22%, while the United States increased its share from 11.3% to 13.5%.

Cheese becomes the leading growth category

Dairy products did not expand at the same pace. Global cheese trade grew by approximately 40% from 2017 and reached 8.96 million tonnes in 2025. RaboResearch said Argentina and the United States doubled their cheese exports over that period, placing both countries among the suppliers that gained the most ground.

The shift also reflects changes in processing strategies. European Union milk production increased by only 5% from 2017, but cheese output rose by 9% and cheese exports by 12%. More milk was directed toward cheese, butter and other higher-value products rather than traditional categories such as milk powder.

Powder trade shifts as Chinese demand eases

New Zealand retained about 53% of the world market in the powder category covered by the report. Europe, by contrast, cut exports by more than half, from around 387,000 tonnes in 2017 to 172,000 tonnes. Argentina and the United Kingdom filled part of the space created by the decline. Global skimmed milk powder trade recorded much slower growth, increasing by only 0.5% during 2025.

China remained the world’s largest dairy importer, although its purchases stayed below their 2021 peak. RaboResearch linked part of the decline to higher Chinese domestic production, which reduced import requirements in some categories. Exporters are consequently placing greater emphasis on the Middle East and Southeast Asia, while Brazil has also become a more important buyer.

Brazil and new capacity support further growth

Brazilian dairy imports increased from 1.3 million to 2.3 million tonnes of milk equivalent between 2022 and 2025, driven mainly by cheese and milk powder. This growth is particularly relevant to Argentina and Uruguay because of Brazil’s proximity and its longstanding role as a destination for regional exports.

RaboResearch identified Argentina and the United States as among the countries best positioned to expand production for the world market. Argentine milk production fell by a cumulative 8% between 2022 and 2024, then grew by 10% in 2025 and another 7% year on year in the first quarter of 2026. The United States had a dairy herd of 9.65 million head and expanded cheese-processing capacity by about 6% in 2025. Its butter exports nearly tripled from roughly 45,000 to 123,000 tonnes. Europe faces tighter regulation, an ageing producer population and already-high productivity, while Argentina’s political and economic volatility remains a risk to its export expansion.