Argentina projected to overtake Brazil as world’s second-largest corn exporter
USDA projections put Argentina’s corn exports at 45 million tonnes in the current campaign, ahead of Brazil’s estimated 42 million tonnes. Expanding Brazilian demand from ethanol plants and animal protein production is reducing the country’s exportable surplus despite record harvests.
Argentina moves ahead in export projections
Argentina is positioned to overtake Brazil as the world’s second-largest corn exporter during the current campaign, according to projections from the US Department of Agriculture. Argentine shipments are forecast to reach 45 million tonnes, compared with an estimated 42 million tonnes for Brazil. The projected gap is relatively narrow, but it would change the ranking of two major suppliers competing for demand in international feed-grain markets.
The shift does not reflect weaker Brazilian production. Facundo Quiroga reported that Brazil continues to achieve record harvests, while a growing share of its corn is being consumed inside the country. That distinction matters for buyers: production determines the overall availability of grain, but domestic use determines how much can reach international markets.
Brazilian ethanol and animal production absorb more corn
Brazil’s expanding corn consumption is being driven by the growth of bioethanol plants and animal protein production. In Mato Grosso, the country’s main agricultural production center, industrial use of corn is expected to double in the coming years. This would reduce the volume available for export even if farmers continue producing record crops.
More domestic processing could strengthen demand for Brazilian growers and support the country’s ethanol and livestock supply chains. For global importers, however, it means that headline crop figures may overstate the grain effectively available for shipment. The 42-million-tonne export projection indicates that Brazil will remain one of the largest suppliers, but its domestic industries are becoming stronger competitors for the same crop.
Argentina enters this environment with corn described by Facundo Quiroga as competitive in both price and shipment volume. The Argentine oilseed industry chamber and grain exporters’ center, CIARA-CEC, said contracted sales were showing sustained acceleration. The organizations expect shipments of up to 10 million tonnes between August and September, a substantial portion of the projected campaign total.
North African demand supports Argentine sales
Demand from North Africa has been an important factor behind Argentina’s stronger business outlook. Buyers in the region have sought alternative origins amid conflicts in Eastern Europe, supporting efforts to open and consolidate destinations for Argentine corn. This gives importers another large-volume source while allowing Argentine exporters to expand their position in markets affected by uncertainty around established supply routes.
If the USDA projections are realized, Argentina would ship 3 million tonnes more corn than Brazil during the campaign. The ranking could still depend on the execution of contracted sales, harvest availability, domestic demand and shipping conditions. Nevertheless, the figures point to a broader change in competition: Brazil’s record production is increasingly serving its own processing and animal industries, while Argentina is directing a larger export program toward external buyers. For traders, processors and feed users, the balance between Brazilian domestic consumption and Argentine shipment capacity will therefore be central to corn availability and supplier competition.
