Argentina's 45 Million Tonne Corn Export Push Threatens Brazil's Number Two Spot
Argentina is heading for a 63 million tonne corn crop and exports of 45 million tonnes in 2025/26, enough to pass Brazil as the world's second-largest supplier, according to HedgePoint and USDA projections reported by Exame. Brazilian shipments to Iran, its top buyer in 2025, fell 43% between January and July 2026 as the war disrupted trade.
Argentina is on course to overtake Brazil as the world's second-largest corn exporter in the 2025/26 season, as a far bigger Argentine crop and cheaper offers coincide with a sharp fall in Brazilian shipments to Iran, the Brazilian business magazine Exame reported.
Brazil needs to export at least 40 million tonnes of corn in 2025/26 to keep its domestic balance in check. Two developments are working against that: Argentina is arriving with a bumper crop and could ship 45 million tonnes, while Iran — the top buyer of Brazilian corn in 2025 — has already cut purchases by 43% this year because of the war.
A 63 million tonne crop resets the export race
HedgePoint Global Markets projects Argentine production at 63 million tonnes in 2025/26, in line with the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) and a 29% increase on the previous season. The Rosario Board of Trade (BCR) works with a higher estimate of 70 million tonnes. For Brazil, national supply agency Conab projects 143 million tonnes.
With more grain available, Argentine exports could jump from 29.1 million tonnes to 45 million tonnes, a gain of almost 55%. Monthly shipments are already accelerating. “They have a very competitive price, better than Brazil's, and it is drawing the attention of the international market,” said Luiz Roque, market intelligence coordinator at HedgePoint.
The USDA had already raised the possibility of Argentina passing its neighbour, projecting Argentine shipments at 45 million tonnes against 42 million tonnes for Brazil. HedgePoint has cut its Brazilian export forecast from 43 million to 41 million tonnes, and Roque said market participants are already working with figures closer to 38 million tonnes. The Argentine rebound follows a season in which the corn leafhopper spread diseases such as corn stunt and drove output sharply lower.
Iran's retreat redraws Brazil's buyer list
Iran was the largest destination for Brazilian corn in 2025, taking 9 million tonnes, but the war that began at the end of February and the associated logistical problems have changed that. Between January and July 2026, Brazilian shipments to Iran fell 43% from 2.69 million tonnes to 1.54 million tonnes, according to HedgePoint. Roque said the volume bought by Iran could shrink further if the conflict lasts longer.
Other markets have taken up part of the space over the same period:
- Vietnam: up 83% to 1.62 million tonnes
- Egypt: up 57% to 2.61 million tonnes
- Algeria: up 76% to 701,000 tonnes
Whether those buyers can offset a prolonged Iranian retreat remains open, and Roque said it is too early to settle that question. The European Union could also open a window for Brazilian corn after heatwaves cut its own production, but Brazil, the United States and Argentina all compete for that market — and Argentine corn is currently the cheapest of the three, according to Roque.
Ethanol demand absorbs part of the crop
Domestic demand offers Brazil more support than in the past. Conab estimates national corn consumption will rise 4.8% from 2024/25 to 95 million tonnes. HedgePoint expects the expansion of corn ethanol to lift the volume of grain used for the biofuel from 23 million tonnes to 28.5 million tonnes this season, approaching 29 million tonnes with the E32 blend.
E32, the new gasoline specification approved by Brazil's National Energy Policy Council (CNPE), raised the mandatory anhydrous ethanol blend from 27% to 32%, widening demand for the biofuel and for corn-based ethanol in particular. That additional consumption absorbs part of the domestic supply but does not remove the need for large export volumes. “The domestic market increasing by 5 to 6 million tonnes for ethanol, as it is this year, is a supportive factor, but it still depends on selling at least 40 million abroad to move corn out of Brazil,” Roque said.
An Argentine lead in corn exports would not be unprecedented. Argentina has outshipped Brazil in several past seasons, particularly before Brazil's second corn crop was consolidated and in years marked by weather problems — as in 2020/21, when a failed second crop cut Brazilian exportable supply.
