Argentina posts record sunflower crush as USDA forecasts 2026/27 global crop surge

Global crop set to reach a record

Global sunflower production is forecast to rise sharply in the 2026/27 season, while Argentina enters the period with record processing and export figures. Infocampo, citing a July report by the Argentine Sunflower Association (ASAGIR), said the US Department of Agriculture expects the world crop to reach 62.66 million tonnes. That would be 13.4% above the previous season and 10.2% higher than the record set in 2021/22.

Global crushing is projected to increase by 11.6% to an all-time high of 55.81 million tonnes as processors gain access to more seed. Ukraine, Russia and the European Union are expected to produce more than 43.5 million tonnes combined, an increase of 6.34 million tonnes from the previous campaign. Russia’s crop is forecast to rise 18.3% to 20.7 million tonnes, Ukraine’s by 18.2% to 13 million tonnes and the EU’s by 13.2% to 9.8 million tonnes.

The additional supply should help rebuild inventories. The global seed stock-to-use ratio is expected to increase from 5.7% to 7.5%, while the ratio for sunflower oil would rise from 12.5% to 13.5%. ASAGIR’s report said the recovery could exert some downward pressure on prices in the coming months.

Argentina’s exports and crushing accelerate

Argentina’s sunflower export complex generated $1.6741 billion between January and May, according to Argentine Agroindustrial Council data based on national statistics agency INDEC figures. Revenue increased 126.1% year on year, compared with 17.1% growth for Argentina’s agroindustrial exports overall. Sunflower products accounted for 7.6% of the country’s total agroindustrial exports during the period.

Processing also reached new highs. Argentina crushed a monthly record of 565,000 tonnes in March 2026. Cumulative processing in January-May totaled 2.322 million tonnes, 32.8% more than in the corresponding period a year earlier. The figures indicate that the increase in export revenue was accompanied by stronger domestic industrial activity rather than relying solely on shipments of unprocessed seed.

Commercial purchases have remained brisk. The Agriculture Secretariat reported that purchases from the 2024/25 crop stood at 3.94 million tonnes on July 1, up 38% from a year earlier, with only 4.8% of production still awaiting price fixation. Purchases from the 2025/26 crop had already reached 4.34 million tonnes, 42.5% higher year on year. The unpriced share declined to 8.1% from 11.4% a year earlier.

Higher supply raises competitive pressure

The USDA expects Argentina to produce 8 million tonnes in the next cycle, 8.1% above its 7.4-million-tonne estimate for the current season. That projection also exceeds the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange estimate of 6.6 million tonnes for 2025/26. Argentine exports are forecast at about 1.925 million tonnes in the current campaign and 2.05 million tonnes in the next. Even so, Argentina’s share of global trade could slip from 14.1% to 13.1% as Russia’s share rises from 30.7% to 32%, while Ukraine accounts for 31.4%.

Prices remain high but forward quotations point to moderation. The Rosario Board of Trade reported a domestic reference price of 667,350 pesos per tonne, equivalent to about $451, on July 7, up 5.6% from a month earlier. Bahía Blanca and Quequén ports quoted around $400 per tonne, while Greater Rosario plants offered $420-$430 for high-oleic sunflower. Argentine sunflower oil was quoted FOB at $1,314 per tonne for July, declining toward $1,280 in early 2027. Rotterdam oil prices stood at $1,475 per tonne for August, with later positions near $1,345. The Black Sea recovery will therefore test Argentine margins and market share just as the country’s processors reach record throughput.