Argentina set to overtake Brazil as world's No. 2 corn exporter in 2025/26
Brazil is on track to lose its spot as the world's second-largest corn exporter to Argentina in 2025/26, after shipments to Iran collapsed, consultancy Hedgepoint Global Markets said. Argentina is forecast at 45 million tonnes against Brazil's 43 million, the first such reversal since 2020/21.
Argentina poised to reclaim second place
Brazil is set to lose its position as the world's second-largest corn exporter to Argentina in the 2025/26 season, following a sharp drop in shipments to Iran, one of its main buyers, the consultancy Hedgepoint Global Markets said, in reporting carried by Mexico's El Economista.
Hedgepoint forecasts Brazilian corn exports at 43 million metric tonnes in 2025/26, up from 41.1 million tonnes the previous season but below the 45 million tonnes estimated for Argentina. The United States remains the world's largest corn exporter by a wide margin. The last time Brazil shipped less corn than Argentina was in the 2020/21 season, making the projected reversal a notable break from recent trade patterns.
Iran demand collapses
The swing is driven largely by Iran, the top destination for Brazilian corn in 2025 at 9 million tonnes. According to Hedgepoint, Iran bought no Brazilian corn in June. In the first half of 2026, Iran took around 1.5 million tonnes of Brazilian corn, down from 2.3 million tonnes in the same period of 2025. That drop-off at a single, dominant buyer is enough to move Brazil below its neighbour in the global export ranking.
Argentina's price edge
Argentina is gaining market share on the back of more competitive prices after an abundant harvest, said Luiz Fernando Roque, a specialist at Hedgepoint. Cheaper Argentine supply gives importers a straightforward reason to switch origins, and price-sensitive destinations are the first to move. For buyers in the feed and starch industries, the practical effect is a wider set of competitive sourcing options between the two South American origins for the coming season.
Record Brazilian crop
The reshuffling is not a supply story. Hedgepoint estimates Brazil's 2025/26 corn crop will reach a record 140.3 million tonnes, and its export forecast of 43 million tonnes is itself higher than the 41.1 million tonnes shipped a year earlier. In other words, Brazil is expected to export more corn than it did last season and still fall to third place, because Argentina's flows are set to grow faster.
The distinction matters for how traders read the numbers. Brazil is not retreating from the export market; it is being outpaced. With a record harvest behind it and rising shipments, Brazil retains ample volume to compete, but the loss of Iranian demand removes a large, concentrated outlet that had anchored its 2025 export book. Whether Brazil regains second place will depend heavily on whether that Iranian business returns or is replaced by other destinations.
For the global corn market, the immediate takeaway is a redistribution of second-tier supply between two large exporters rather than a change at the top. The United States continues to lead. Behind it, Argentina and Brazil are now closely matched, and the balance between them looks increasingly sensitive to price competitiveness and to the buying decisions of a handful of large importers. Iran's absence from the Brazilian market in June, and the lighter first-half 2026 volumes, are the clearest signals of how quickly those flows can shift.
The figures cited here come from Hedgepoint Global Markets, as reported by El Economista. Actual season totals will depend on weather through the remainder of the crop cycle, currency movements affecting each origin's competitiveness, and demand from major importers over the balance of 2025/26.
