Arabica coffee rises as ICE stocks fall to lowest level in more than two years
ICE-certified Arabica inventories fell to nearly 330,000 bags as of July 20, their lowest level in more than two years. Delayed harvesting and slower exports from Brazil are tightening available supply, lifting Arabica to $7,155 per tonne.
Certified stocks approach a 27-year floor
Arabica coffee prices extended their advance as shrinking exchange inventories and slower-than-expected supply from Brazil intensified concerns about near-term availability. According to Vietnam Government News, citing the Vietnam Commodity Exchange (MXV), Arabica rose 1.3% to $7,155 per tonne in the latest session, while Robusta gained nearly 0.2% to $3,884 per tonne.
ICE-certified Arabica inventories had fallen to nearly 330,000 bags by July 20, the lowest level in more than two years. Stocks declined by more than 3,000 bags in the latest day alone. The total was 59.4% below its 2025 level, nearly 60% below 2024, 39% below 2023 and 54% below 2022.
Current stocks are only about 27,600 bags above the 27-year low recorded in 1999. MXV said that, if the present pace of withdrawals continues, certified inventories could fall below that floor as soon as next month. The contraction reduces the volume immediately available for delivery against futures contracts and increases sensitivity to disruptions in producing countries.
Brazilian harvest trails last year
Brazil, the largest source of Arabica supply, has not brought its new crop to market as quickly as expected. Consultancy Safras & Mercado said scattered rainfall interrupted fieldwork in some regions during the past week. By July 15, farmers had harvested 64% of the planted area, up from 58% one week earlier but below 77% at the same point last year and the five-year average of 70%.
Weather has also affected bean quality. Unseasonal rain associated with El Niño in June reduced the availability of higher-grade coffee, according to the report. Farmers have consequently shown a greater tendency to retain better-quality lots while uncertainty over weather and supply persists.
The slower flow is visible in exports. By July 17, Brazil had shipped more than 1 million bags, 11% less than in the previous month, while registrations for certificates of origin were down 12.8%. At the current pace, July exports could remain below 2.5 million bags, only slightly above the volume recorded in the same period last year.
Robusta market shows a different balance
Vietnamese supply is also tightening as the 2025-2026 crop year enters its final months. Physical-market activity, however, remains subdued because demand is weak and many traders are reluctant to buy after domestic coffee prices reached their highest level in several months.
Robusta is receiving less support from exchange fundamentals than Arabica. Đào Thị Linh of Ho Chi Minh City Commodity Trading Joint Stock Company said ICE-certified Robusta stocks had risen to their highest level in nearly four months. Speculative funds also slightly reduced their net-long positions in the week ended July 14, while producers maintained a substantial net-short position.
This divergence matters for roasters and traders. Arabica users face a smaller certified buffer, slower Brazilian crop movement and reduced availability of premium beans. Robusta buyers still face tight physical supply in Vietnam, but higher certified inventories and cautious speculative demand are limiting upward momentum. Puls Biznesu separately reported that elevated coffee prices are affecting consumers, importers and café operators, with the market focused on how long current price levels can persist.